Who's the best base-stealer in the game?

In my opinion, there are really only 2 players in this discussion: Carl Crawford or Jacoby Ellsbury. Both guys are tremendous athletes with great speed, superb base-running instincts, and a fearlessness to lay it all on the line. More has been said about Crawford after his amazing start this season (20 SB in his first 29 games including 6 in one game), but Ellsbury's no slouch and he's coming off a 50 SB season of his own last year.

Ellsbury's been extremely consistent so far and has pulled within 1 SB of Crawford and the league lead. With both the Tampa Bay Rays and the Boston Red Sox fighting for the Wild Card playoff spot, there should be ample opportunities for both players to showcase their skills. When every run counts, you can bet that both of them will be running every chance they get.

Now, when evaluating which guy is the better base-stealer, it's very easy to let the other stat categories sneak in to your thought process. If we were trying to determine which player is the better "overall" player, then it would have to be Crawford at least this season. The stats definitely back it up:

Crawford: 73 R, 12 HR, 55 RBI, 53 SB, .312 BA
Ellsbury: 63 R, 6 HR, 36 RBI, 52 SB, .297 BA

In every stat category, Crawford is ahead. But we're not deciding which player is the better "overall" player. We're trying to determine which player is the better pure base-stealer, and that I would say is Ellsbury. Out of 60 attempts he's only been caught 8 times, which is the lowest total of anyone in the Top 10 (Crawford has been caught 10 times), and he's only in his 2nd season at the Major League level. Stealing bases is about more than just being fast. You have to be smart and it shows in how few times he's been caught stealing.

Both players are great base-stealers, but I think the edge has to go to Ellsbury.

Fantasy Impact: In a stat category like SB's, even having a single guy like Crawford or Ellsbury is often enough to win the category any given week, and the best part is that neither guy is a slouch with the bat. Both of them can do damage, and they're major reasons why their respective teams are in the Wild Card race. Having a guy who can steal upwards of 60-70 bases in a season is one of the best investments you can make on the road to creating a championship-caliber fantasy team.

Is Mark Reynolds the hottest hitter in baseball?

I'd say so. Looking at Mark Reynolds' statline the last 10 games, You'd be hard-pressed to find anyone close (8 R, 8 HR, 13 RBI, 2 SB, .381 BA). He's completely on fire right now and overall he's been one of the biggest surprises this season. While maturing into a more disciplined hitter, he's also become a 5-category stud for the Arizona Diamondbacks, adding 20 SB so far this season.

The power was certainly there last season (28 HR, 97 RBI), but the batting average was crippling (.239 BA) and left most fantasy managers wondering if the trade-off was worth it. Well, what a difference a year makes. He's already surpassed last years HR total with 36 HR so far and still has 50 games remaining in the season. Not only that, but the batting average has come way up from last year and is now a very respectable (.290 BA). With that kind of power production, the 20 SB's are really just icing on the cake.

Having just turned 26-years-old, it's hard to bet against him carrying this success into next season and beyond, but nothing's ever that simple. For now, all we can do is sit back and watch what happens.

Fantasy Impact: Another young hitter with a lot of potential. With a current Yahoo fantasy ranking of 4, there's just about a zero chance of him being available in your league, other than via trade. In keepers leagues he's an intriguing option, but would probably come at a steep price. It's hard to argue with the production so far this season, but I also wouldn't be surprised to see the BA dip back down to mid-200's next season and the SB's go away as he becomes more entrenched in the middle of the D-Backs lineup.

Can Ichiro reach 3,000 hits?

Wouldn't that be amazing? Ichiro Suzuki, a Japanese-born player who came over to the Major Leagues when he was 28-years-old, reaching one of baseball's most celebrated milestones. A plateau that many of the greatest players in history never reach. The crazy thing is that if you look at the numbers, it's really not that inconceivable. With another 40 hits this season, he'll finish with 200 hits for the 9th consecutive year and have 2,000 hits for his career. 2,000 hits in 9 seasons! That's amazing!

At that pace he could reach 3,000 hits in just 5 more seasons. Now, it should be pointed out that in 5 years he'll be 41-years-old so nothing is etched in stone, but there really aren't any signs that he's slowing down. Just look at his statline so far this season (161 H, 23 SB, .365 BA). That sure doesn't look like your typical 36-year-old player at the back end of their career. Plus he's never played less than 157 games in a season, so you know the physical conditioning is there.

Another factor working in his favor is that he plays in the American League for the Seattle Mariners, which means the DH position is always a possibility. Personally, I can't see Ichiro ever manning the DH spot, but it's there just in case. There's also something to be said about playing the game where you're comfortable and it's pretty clear he's comfortable up in Seattle. Having 3 full years left on the 5-year deal he signed back in 2007, he should be able to get to at least 2,500 hits before he's scheduled to become a unrestricted free agent. Personally, I don't think there's any way he leaves Seattle, especially if he has a chance to reach 3,000 hits.

There's no doubt that Ichiro's one of the best hitters of our generation, and with a few more great seasons it'll be time to start talking about him as one of the great hitters in baseball history.

Fantasy Impact: Although being one of the most dynamic players on the real diamond, sometimes that doesn't always translate well to the fantasy world. In Ichiro's case, he's really a 3 category guy (R, SB, BA), which means you're not going to get much more than 10 HR and 60 RBI. However, on a team full of power hitters with mid-.200 BA, Ichiro can be just what the doctor ordered. Almost surely owned in your league, he'd only available via trade.

Is Garrett Jones the next Ryan Braun?

OK, so it's probably too soon to start comparing Garrett Jones to Ryan Braun, but let's just consider for a moment what Jones has done so far in his young career. Through 21 games, his stat line looks pretty darn impressive (16 R, 10HR 16 RBI, .330 BA), and eerily similar to Braun's start in 2007 (through 30 games - 26 R, 6 HR, 21 RBI, .328 BA).

So, the question is whether we can expect this continue or if this is just a fluke. Honestly, my gut tells me this is a fluke. He's got a lot of factors working against him being able to sustain this type of production over the long term. First of all he plays for the Pittsburgh Pirates, which means he'll play half his games in a pitcher-friendly park and although some hitters have had success (i.e. Brian Giles, Aramis Ramirez, & Jason Bay), it's not an easy place to hit the ball out of the ballpark.

Secondly, playing for the Pirates also means he'll have zero protection in the lineup. Even if he does begin to sustain this production, he'll start getting the Adrian Gonzalez treatment and never see another good pitch to hit. With the exception of Albert Pujols or maybe A-Rod, not many hitters can survive without protection in the lineup. When Braun came up, he immediately had Prince Fielder batting right behind him.

And finally, he's basically starting his big league career at 28-years-old, whereas Braun was 23-years-old when he made his professional debut. Looking back, there aren't too many players who've began their professional careers at 28 years of age and had sustained success. This isn't to say it couldn't happen, it's just unlikely.

Although the start of his career is a nice story and I really hope he has a success at the Major League level, I just can't see him elevating to the level of a Ryan Braun.

Fantasy Impact: If he's available in your league, he's probably worth a pickup. Without anything to lose, you may just land yourself a nice little hitter. However, in keeper leagues or leagues with caps on free agent pickups, I would probably pass.

What happened to Magglio?

Does anyone still remember what Magglio Ordonez did back in '07? If not, here's a quick refresher. Check out this statline: 117 R, 28 HR, 139 RBI, .363 BA., which was good enough for a Top-5 Yahoo! ranking at the end of the season. Fast forward a year and a half...here's his statline through 76 games: 33 R, 5 HR, 32 RBI, .257 BA, which is bad enough for a 631 Yahoo! ranking.

What's happened to Magglio? Well, let's take a closer look. Does he play for a bad team? No, the Detroit Tigers are leading the AL Central by 3 games over the Chicago White Sox. Does he not have any protection around him in the lineup? No, he's batted anywhere between 3 to 6 in the lineup with Curtis Granderson (56 R, 19 HR, 46 RBI, 17 SB) setting the table and Miguel Cabrera (56 R, 19 HR, 53 RBI, .328 BA) and Brandon Inge (53 R, 21 HR, 58 RBI, .258 BA) providing protection. Is he getting old? Maybe, he turned 35 before the season started so the argument could be made that a drop-off in production should be expected as he enteres the later stages of his career. Is he injured? Maybe, he's missed a total of 17 games so far, so it's likely that he's been battling some nagging injuries that have kept him from feeling comfortable at the plate.

All in all, there's really no good explanation for why he's doing so poorly so far in 2009. Maybe it's age, maybe it's the nagging injuries, or maybe he's just having an off year. Regardess of the reason, his production so far has been anything but a fantasy.

Fantasy Impact: Only in a situation where you can stash him on your bench and not have to count on any production from him would it make sense to own him right now. He's not playing everyday, but with his proven track record, there's always the possibility he gets hot near the end of the season and carries you into the playoffs, then suddenly you look like a genius for picking him up. Although what's more likely is that he will continue to platoon in the outfield and probably end up on the DL at least once in the second half of the season. Good luck if you're willing to take that chance.

Can Pujols win the Triple Crown?

I don't think there's any doubt Albert Pujols is capable of winning the Triple Crown, but can he really do it? With all of the great players in the game today, can any player really do it? My answer is YES and I think he's going to do it this season!

That may be a bold prediction, but I'm willing to make it. Every time he steps in the batters box, he's capable of doing something great. Earlier this season I had the pleasure of seeing him play against my hometown San Francisco Giants and he single-handedly took us apart (2-3, 2 HR, 2 R, 2RBI). I just sat there and realized I was watching greatness. Not only that, but I found myself rooting for him because of it. As a student of the game, I love to root for greatness. I love to see great players do amazing things. And I think this is the year that Pujols becomes the first Triple Crown winner since Carl Yastrzemski in 1967!

At this point in his career (29-years-old) he's already a Hall of Fame lock. With 9 straight seasons of at least 30 HR's, 99 R's, 100 RBI's, .300 BA to start his career, NL ROY ('01), 2 NL MVP's ('05 & '08), Gold Glove ('06), 8-Time All-Star, and a World Series champion ('06), the only thing left is the Triple Crown. Coming into play today he's 1st in HR's (34), 1st in RBI's (90), and 2nd in BA (.333), 12 points behind Hanley Ramirez (.345), which is certainly not insurmountable.

If there's one thing we know about Pujols it's that he's at his best in big moments. If the St. Louis Cardinals can stay at the top of the NL Central, then I think the big games in September will help put him over the top. I know it's not easy and certainly not a sure thing, but he's also probably the best hitter in baseball today. It should be an exciting 2nd half of the season!

Fantasy Impact: There are few players worth trading the farm for but Pujols is one of them. He's about as untouchable as Lincecum from my previous post.

Biggest surprises so far in 2009?

With the All-Star Break just around the corner, let's take a look back at some of the biggest offensive and pitching surprises of 2009:

National League:

Offense:
Raul Ibanez (PHI) 51 R, 22 HR, 59 RBI, .312 BA
Even having missed 2+ weeks of the season while on the DL, Ibanez's numbers still so impressive that he earned his first trip to the All-Star game. Easily the best signing of the offseason, Ibanez has been a huge contributor in the Philadelphia Phillies lineup. If he can get healthy, this should be a career year for the 37-year-old outfielder.

Brad Hawpe (COL) 48 R, 13 HR, 56 RBI, .325 BA
Midway through the season and Hawpe has done his best to help fill the void left by Matt Holliday's departure. Like Ibanez, Hawpe has also earned his first trip to the All-Star game, but I'm sure he's hoping it's not his last. Although not a pure power hitter, Hawpe's ability to spray the ball all over the field and hit for extra-base power make him an extremely tough out. He'll still need a strong 2nd half to prove that he's finally arrived.

Pitching:
Josh Johnson (FLA) 7-1, 2.76 ERA, 97 K
After a breakout season in 2006 where he finished 12-7 with a 3.10 ERA and 133 K's, the sky was the limit for this top prospect. Unfortunately, injuries have sidelined him for most of the last two seasons, but now he's back healthy and has regained his old form. Having made his first career All-Star team, he'll be the guy the Marlins lean on to get them into the playoffs.

Matt Cain (SFO) 10-2, 2.42 ERA, 93 K
Another 25-year-old budding star, Cain is starting to put it all together. Having been snakebitten the last couple seasons by horrible run support, this year he's not only gotten the runs but also he's developed the type of pinpoint control and mental toughness that all great pitchers posess. The Giants will rely heavily on Cain and Tim Lincecum if they hope to return to the playoffs after a 5-year absence.

American League:

Offense:
Aaron Hill (TOR) 51 R, 20 HR, 59 RBI, .295 BA
Although not a household name yet, Hill was named as an alternate to the All-Star team this year after a tremendous 1st half. Batting in the middle of a potent Toronto Blue Jays offense has helped vault him into the top tier of middle infielders in the league. A strong 2nd half could let everyone know that he's for real and here to stay.

Shin-Soo Choo (CLE) 49 R, 12 HR, 53 RBI, .301 BA
Having made the most of an opportunity to play next to Grady Sizemore in the Cleveland Indians outfield, Choo has far exceeded any expectations to this point in the season. Having never played a full season in the big leagues, it'll be interesting to see if he can keep it going.

Pitching:
Zack Greinke (KC) 10-4, 2.00 ERA, 120 K
There's really no doubt about this one. Greinke has been the best pitcher in the league thus far. Once upon a time Greinke was a hard-throwing 1st-round draft pick who showed flashes of greatness as a rookie in 2004. Now, 5 years and a social anxiety disorder later, he's finally living up to his potential. He's the one bright spot on another dismal Kansas City Royals team.

Edwin Jackson (DET) 6-4, 2.59 ERA, 93 K
Although the record doesn't bare out how great Jackson has pitched, the 13 quality starts begin to illustrate how good he's been so far. Another victim of poor run support and bullpen meltdowns, Jackson continues to shutdown potent offenses with a combination of power and control, having only walked 33 batters in 114 innings.