Is Garrett Jones the next Ryan Braun?

OK, so it's probably too soon to start comparing Garrett Jones to Ryan Braun, but let's just consider for a moment what Jones has done so far in his young career. Through 21 games, his stat line looks pretty darn impressive (16 R, 10HR 16 RBI, .330 BA), and eerily similar to Braun's start in 2007 (through 30 games - 26 R, 6 HR, 21 RBI, .328 BA).

So, the question is whether we can expect this continue or if this is just a fluke. Honestly, my gut tells me this is a fluke. He's got a lot of factors working against him being able to sustain this type of production over the long term. First of all he plays for the Pittsburgh Pirates, which means he'll play half his games in a pitcher-friendly park and although some hitters have had success (i.e. Brian Giles, Aramis Ramirez, & Jason Bay), it's not an easy place to hit the ball out of the ballpark.

Secondly, playing for the Pirates also means he'll have zero protection in the lineup. Even if he does begin to sustain this production, he'll start getting the Adrian Gonzalez treatment and never see another good pitch to hit. With the exception of Albert Pujols or maybe A-Rod, not many hitters can survive without protection in the lineup. When Braun came up, he immediately had Prince Fielder batting right behind him.

And finally, he's basically starting his big league career at 28-years-old, whereas Braun was 23-years-old when he made his professional debut. Looking back, there aren't too many players who've began their professional careers at 28 years of age and had sustained success. This isn't to say it couldn't happen, it's just unlikely.

Although the start of his career is a nice story and I really hope he has a success at the Major League level, I just can't see him elevating to the level of a Ryan Braun.

Fantasy Impact: If he's available in your league, he's probably worth a pickup. Without anything to lose, you may just land yourself a nice little hitter. However, in keeper leagues or leagues with caps on free agent pickups, I would probably pass.