Thursday, August 6, 2009

Can Ichiro reach 3,000 hits?

Wouldn't that be amazing? Ichiro Suzuki, a Japanese-born player who came over to the Major Leagues when he was 28-years-old, reaching one of baseball's most celebrated milestones. A plateau that many of the greatest players in history never reach. The crazy thing is that if you look at the numbers, it's really not that inconceivable. With another 40 hits this season, he'll finish with 200 hits for the 9th consecutive year and have 2,000 hits for his career. 2,000 hits in 9 seasons! That's amazing!

At that pace he could reach 3,000 hits in just 5 more seasons. Now, it should be pointed out that in 5 years he'll be 41-years-old so nothing is etched in stone, but there really aren't any signs that he's slowing down. Just look at his statline so far this season (161 H, 23 SB, .365 BA). That sure doesn't look like your typical 36-year-old player at the back end of their career. Plus he's never played less than 157 games in a season, so you know the physical conditioning is there.

Another factor working in his favor is that he plays in the American League for the Seattle Mariners, which means the DH position is always a possibility. Personally, I can't see Ichiro ever manning the DH spot, but it's there just in case. There's also something to be said about playing the game where you're comfortable and it's pretty clear he's comfortable up in Seattle. Having 3 full years left on the 5-year deal he signed back in 2007, he should be able to get to at least 2,500 hits before he's scheduled to become a unrestricted free agent. Personally, I don't think there's any way he leaves Seattle, especially if he has a chance to reach 3,000 hits.

There's no doubt that Ichiro's one of the best hitters of our generation, and with a few more great seasons it'll be time to start talking about him as one of the great hitters in baseball history.

Fantasy Impact: Although being one of the most dynamic players on the real diamond, sometimes that doesn't always translate well to the fantasy world. In Ichiro's case, he's really a 3 category guy (R, SB, BA), which means you're not going to get much more than 10 HR and 60 RBI. However, on a team full of power hitters with mid-.200 BA, Ichiro can be just what the doctor ordered. Almost surely owned in your league, he'd only available via trade.

3 comments:

cminouye said...

How about 4,000 hits: Jeff Passan's Column. With his flexibility, conditioning, and the natural, unforced nature of his swing, it seems like he could be breaking age/batting records well into his 40s.

Julie said...

Thanks Chris. I'm certainly rooting for him. He's one of the great players of the game.

Trevor Olsen said...

Oops, I guess I was signed in as Julie when I posted that comment. Anyway, thanks for checking out the blog Chris. Got any post ideas for me?