Is Garrett Jones the next Ryan Braun?

OK, so it's probably too soon to start comparing Garrett Jones to Ryan Braun, but let's just consider for a moment what Jones has done so far in his young career. Through 21 games, his stat line looks pretty darn impressive (16 R, 10HR 16 RBI, .330 BA), and eerily similar to Braun's start in 2007 (through 30 games - 26 R, 6 HR, 21 RBI, .328 BA).

So, the question is whether we can expect this continue or if this is just a fluke. Honestly, my gut tells me this is a fluke. He's got a lot of factors working against him being able to sustain this type of production over the long term. First of all he plays for the Pittsburgh Pirates, which means he'll play half his games in a pitcher-friendly park and although some hitters have had success (i.e. Brian Giles, Aramis Ramirez, & Jason Bay), it's not an easy place to hit the ball out of the ballpark.

Secondly, playing for the Pirates also means he'll have zero protection in the lineup. Even if he does begin to sustain this production, he'll start getting the Adrian Gonzalez treatment and never see another good pitch to hit. With the exception of Albert Pujols or maybe A-Rod, not many hitters can survive without protection in the lineup. When Braun came up, he immediately had Prince Fielder batting right behind him.

And finally, he's basically starting his big league career at 28-years-old, whereas Braun was 23-years-old when he made his professional debut. Looking back, there aren't too many players who've began their professional careers at 28 years of age and had sustained success. This isn't to say it couldn't happen, it's just unlikely.

Although the start of his career is a nice story and I really hope he has a success at the Major League level, I just can't see him elevating to the level of a Ryan Braun.

Fantasy Impact: If he's available in your league, he's probably worth a pickup. Without anything to lose, you may just land yourself a nice little hitter. However, in keeper leagues or leagues with caps on free agent pickups, I would probably pass.

What happened to Magglio?

Does anyone still remember what Magglio Ordonez did back in '07? If not, here's a quick refresher. Check out this statline: 117 R, 28 HR, 139 RBI, .363 BA., which was good enough for a Top-5 Yahoo! ranking at the end of the season. Fast forward a year and a half...here's his statline through 76 games: 33 R, 5 HR, 32 RBI, .257 BA, which is bad enough for a 631 Yahoo! ranking.

What's happened to Magglio? Well, let's take a closer look. Does he play for a bad team? No, the Detroit Tigers are leading the AL Central by 3 games over the Chicago White Sox. Does he not have any protection around him in the lineup? No, he's batted anywhere between 3 to 6 in the lineup with Curtis Granderson (56 R, 19 HR, 46 RBI, 17 SB) setting the table and Miguel Cabrera (56 R, 19 HR, 53 RBI, .328 BA) and Brandon Inge (53 R, 21 HR, 58 RBI, .258 BA) providing protection. Is he getting old? Maybe, he turned 35 before the season started so the argument could be made that a drop-off in production should be expected as he enteres the later stages of his career. Is he injured? Maybe, he's missed a total of 17 games so far, so it's likely that he's been battling some nagging injuries that have kept him from feeling comfortable at the plate.

All in all, there's really no good explanation for why he's doing so poorly so far in 2009. Maybe it's age, maybe it's the nagging injuries, or maybe he's just having an off year. Regardess of the reason, his production so far has been anything but a fantasy.

Fantasy Impact: Only in a situation where you can stash him on your bench and not have to count on any production from him would it make sense to own him right now. He's not playing everyday, but with his proven track record, there's always the possibility he gets hot near the end of the season and carries you into the playoffs, then suddenly you look like a genius for picking him up. Although what's more likely is that he will continue to platoon in the outfield and probably end up on the DL at least once in the second half of the season. Good luck if you're willing to take that chance.

Guess who's currently leading the league in Wins?

With a record of 12-6 and an ERA of 3.49, I think it's safe to say that Jason Marquis is turning in a career year. Having never had more than 15 wins in any season, it's a bit surprising he's found such a nice groove up at Coors Field. But none the less his home ERA is respectable (3.80) and it's not like he's had to rely solely on run support to win. He's a major reason why the Colorado Rockies are leading the Wild Card race after passing the San Francisco Giants earlier this week.

A remarkably consistent pitcher the last 6 years, he's averaged 12 wins without finishing a season with an ERA under 4.00. When I watch him pitch, I see the "intangibles" of a good pitcher. He's smart on the mound. He gets ahead of hitters early, forces them to hit his pitch, and keeps the ball off the sweet spot of the bat. Being a lifelong Giants fan, I see many similarities to the former Giant pitcher Kirk Rueter, who averaged 13 Wins over 7 straight seasons from '97-'03 while posting an ERA under 4.00 just twice during that span.

While most pitchers rely on a mid-90's fastball and a "strike every hitter out" mentality, few pitchers truly master the art of pitching. At this point it would be ridiculous to start comparing Marquis to a guy like Greg Maddux, who's probably the greatest pure "pitcher" of all time, but it's definitely time we give him some props.

Fantasy Impact: He's the classic guy you'd love to have on your favorite team, just not on your fantasy team. His win total is impressive, but the peripheral stats just aren't up to par. Although probably not a free agent in deeper leagues, he's most likely available for the right price regardless.

Can Pujols win the Triple Crown?

I don't think there's any doubt Albert Pujols is capable of winning the Triple Crown, but can he really do it? With all of the great players in the game today, can any player really do it? My answer is YES and I think he's going to do it this season!

That may be a bold prediction, but I'm willing to make it. Every time he steps in the batters box, he's capable of doing something great. Earlier this season I had the pleasure of seeing him play against my hometown San Francisco Giants and he single-handedly took us apart (2-3, 2 HR, 2 R, 2RBI). I just sat there and realized I was watching greatness. Not only that, but I found myself rooting for him because of it. As a student of the game, I love to root for greatness. I love to see great players do amazing things. And I think this is the year that Pujols becomes the first Triple Crown winner since Carl Yastrzemski in 1967!

At this point in his career (29-years-old) he's already a Hall of Fame lock. With 9 straight seasons of at least 30 HR's, 99 R's, 100 RBI's, .300 BA to start his career, NL ROY ('01), 2 NL MVP's ('05 & '08), Gold Glove ('06), 8-Time All-Star, and a World Series champion ('06), the only thing left is the Triple Crown. Coming into play today he's 1st in HR's (34), 1st in RBI's (90), and 2nd in BA (.333), 12 points behind Hanley Ramirez (.345), which is certainly not insurmountable.

If there's one thing we know about Pujols it's that he's at his best in big moments. If the St. Louis Cardinals can stay at the top of the NL Central, then I think the big games in September will help put him over the top. I know it's not easy and certainly not a sure thing, but he's also probably the best hitter in baseball today. It should be an exciting 2nd half of the season!

Fantasy Impact: There are few players worth trading the farm for but Pujols is one of them. He's about as untouchable as Lincecum from my previous post.

Biggest surprises so far in 2009?

With the All-Star Break just around the corner, let's take a look back at some of the biggest offensive and pitching surprises of 2009:

National League:

Offense:
Raul Ibanez (PHI) 51 R, 22 HR, 59 RBI, .312 BA
Even having missed 2+ weeks of the season while on the DL, Ibanez's numbers still so impressive that he earned his first trip to the All-Star game. Easily the best signing of the offseason, Ibanez has been a huge contributor in the Philadelphia Phillies lineup. If he can get healthy, this should be a career year for the 37-year-old outfielder.

Brad Hawpe (COL) 48 R, 13 HR, 56 RBI, .325 BA
Midway through the season and Hawpe has done his best to help fill the void left by Matt Holliday's departure. Like Ibanez, Hawpe has also earned his first trip to the All-Star game, but I'm sure he's hoping it's not his last. Although not a pure power hitter, Hawpe's ability to spray the ball all over the field and hit for extra-base power make him an extremely tough out. He'll still need a strong 2nd half to prove that he's finally arrived.

Pitching:
Josh Johnson (FLA) 7-1, 2.76 ERA, 97 K
After a breakout season in 2006 where he finished 12-7 with a 3.10 ERA and 133 K's, the sky was the limit for this top prospect. Unfortunately, injuries have sidelined him for most of the last two seasons, but now he's back healthy and has regained his old form. Having made his first career All-Star team, he'll be the guy the Marlins lean on to get them into the playoffs.

Matt Cain (SFO) 10-2, 2.42 ERA, 93 K
Another 25-year-old budding star, Cain is starting to put it all together. Having been snakebitten the last couple seasons by horrible run support, this year he's not only gotten the runs but also he's developed the type of pinpoint control and mental toughness that all great pitchers posess. The Giants will rely heavily on Cain and Tim Lincecum if they hope to return to the playoffs after a 5-year absence.

American League:

Offense:
Aaron Hill (TOR) 51 R, 20 HR, 59 RBI, .295 BA
Although not a household name yet, Hill was named as an alternate to the All-Star team this year after a tremendous 1st half. Batting in the middle of a potent Toronto Blue Jays offense has helped vault him into the top tier of middle infielders in the league. A strong 2nd half could let everyone know that he's for real and here to stay.

Shin-Soo Choo (CLE) 49 R, 12 HR, 53 RBI, .301 BA
Having made the most of an opportunity to play next to Grady Sizemore in the Cleveland Indians outfield, Choo has far exceeded any expectations to this point in the season. Having never played a full season in the big leagues, it'll be interesting to see if he can keep it going.

Pitching:
Zack Greinke (KC) 10-4, 2.00 ERA, 120 K
There's really no doubt about this one. Greinke has been the best pitcher in the league thus far. Once upon a time Greinke was a hard-throwing 1st-round draft pick who showed flashes of greatness as a rookie in 2004. Now, 5 years and a social anxiety disorder later, he's finally living up to his potential. He's the one bright spot on another dismal Kansas City Royals team.

Edwin Jackson (DET) 6-4, 2.59 ERA, 93 K
Although the record doesn't bare out how great Jackson has pitched, the 13 quality starts begin to illustrate how good he's been so far. Another victim of poor run support and bullpen meltdowns, Jackson continues to shutdown potent offenses with a combination of power and control, having only walked 33 batters in 114 innings.